Twenty-four hours have passed since Apache gunships appeared over Caracas. The initial shock of the abduction of Nicolás Maduro is giving way to a more practical question: What now?

Donald Trump has declared that the US is going to “run Venezuela” and revitalize its oil industry. It is the kind of bombastic statement that his supporters cheer and the media amplifies without scrutiny. But history suggests that this promise is not just optimistic; it is a fantasy.

In this follow-up podcast, I explored the sheer logistical impossibility of what is being proposed. To “run” Venezuela—a vast, mountainous, and jungle-covered nation with a population of nearly 30 million—would require an occupation force numbering in the hundreds of thousands.

The Vietnam Parallel

At the height of the Vietnam War in 1968, the US had over half a million troops on the ground. That was barely enough to hold the cities, let alone control the countryside. Venezuela is significantly larger than South Vietnam.

Does the US military have the capacity for such a deployment today? More importantly, does the American public have the stomach for it? Occupations are not quick victories; they are slow, grinding conflicts. As the British learned in the Boer War and the Americans learned in Iraq, a determined guerrilla force can bleed a superior army dry over years.

The Purge of Expertise

One of the most alarming aspects of this crisis is the apparent lack of planning. The invasion of Iraq in 2003 was a disaster, but at least there had been some planning (albeit ignored). The occupation of Germany in 1945 was planned for years in minute detail.

By contrast, the Trump administration has spent the last year purging the “Deep State”—removing career diplomats, generals, and intelligence officers who might have offered a word of caution. The institutional memory that usually prevents presidents from making catastrophic errors has been erased. Trump is surrounded by yes-men like Pete Hegseth who validate his “tormented masculinity” rather than offer strategic counsel.

The Drone Factor

Furthermore, the battlefield has changed. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the lethal effectiveness of asymmetric warfare. Cheap drones can destroy multi-million dollar tanks and sink battleships. If the Venezuelan military or the armed militias (the colectivos) decide to fight back using these tactics, an American occupation force would face a nightmare scenario of constant attrition.

Hubris and Nemesis

Trump’s motivation is likely a mix of greed (seizing the oil) and the need for spectacle to distract from domestic crises. But empires often die from overreach. By shredding international law and committing the US to an unwinnable quagmire, Trump may have just accelerated the end of American hegemony.

The world is watching. And as the initial shock fades, the realization is dawning: the Emperor has no clothes, and he has no plan.

---

Tidied Transcript

Nick: Hi there and welcome again to the Explaining History podcast.

Here we are, 24 hours on from the initial attack on Venezuela by the United States. Much of what I’m going to say today is semi-informed speculation, so please take it with a hint of skepticism. Fast-moving events can render analysis out of date quickly, but I’ll do my best to ground this in historical precedent.

One thing Trump understands is that if you make an outrageous statement, the media—due to institutional failings and general toadism—will amplify it. Yesterday, he claimed, “We are going to run Venezuela.” He creates the perception that the US has already successfully overthrown the government and is occupying the country.

None of that is true. What has happened is an abduction. The US has broken international law, used special forces to capture a head of state, and extracted him.

Trump has been candid about his motivation: seizing Venezuelan oil. He claims Venezuela has done “terrible things” to America and compensation is due. But to actually “run” Venezuela and extract that oil, the US would need to militarily occupy the country.

Let’s look at the numbers. At the height of the Vietnam War in 1968, the US had half a million troops in South Vietnam just to fight an insurgency. Venezuela is significantly larger. To occupy it would likely require hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of servicemen. Does the US have those numbers? Probably not.

The US has many strategic commitments globally. As the British found in the Boer War, a global empire stretched thin struggles to concentrate forces on a single, protracted conflict. The Boers, like Ho Chi Minh later, understood that you grind down a superior enemy by playing for time.

Is there the political will in America to occupy Venezuela for years and endure ongoing casualties? Almost certainly not. There is no meaningful narrative to justify this to the American public other than corporate greed.

Trump’s team claims they will sweep away socialism and invest billions to fix the “rusty” oil infrastructure. This is typical Trump bombast. I doubt the major oil companies were given prior notice that they would be on the hook for this investment.

It is possible this entire operation is born of caprice. Trump may have decided Maduro disrespected him. The charges of narco-terrorism against Maduro are flimsy; the chemical infrastructure for fentanyl production simply isn’t there in Venezuela.

Trump is an inept empire handler who says the quiet part out loud. Figures like Cheney or Rumsfeld never trusted him because he couldn’t stick to the script of “liberal internationalism.” George W. Bush served corporate interests in Iraq but dressed it up as a crusade for freedom. Trump just says, “We’re taking the oil.”

Without the means to permanently occupy the country, this looks like spectacle. Trump is in economic trouble, he hasn’t solved the cost-of-living crisis, and more Epstein revelations may be looming. He needs a distraction.

We saw Maria Corina Machado, the recent Nobel Peace Prize winner, immediately call for the bombing of her own country to “liberate” it. Trump has already thrown her under the bus, calling her unpopular. And she is—her message of Ayn Rand-style capitalism doesn’t resonate in the favelas. With Maduro kidnapped and Machado sidelined, who takes over?

Likely nobody pro-American. The Venezuelan government will reassert itself. A replacement for Maduro will step up. The country will likely unite in anger against the bombing. Militias were armed throughout last year. The army hasn’t been co-opted.

An invasion would require airborne or amphibious operations, which are incredibly difficult. And unlike Iraq, there hasn’t been a long campaign to degrade the military infrastructure.

What if Trump just bombs the country for six months, Putin-style? What will that achieve? He has a ticking clock with the midterms approaching. He either needs a quick win or he’s creating chaos to hand over to the Democrats.

The media’s failure to ask “How?” is staggering. No one is asking how you occupy a hostile nation of 30 million people without a plan.

Modern warfare is asymmetric. Look at Ukraine: cheap drones destroying Russian tanks and sinking flagships. If the Venezuelan military or militias use these tactics, an occupying force faces a nightmare.

There seems to be zero planning for the “day after,” much like in Iraq. But at least in WWII, the Allies planned the occupation of Germany for years. Trump has purged the State Department and the Pentagon of experts—the people whose job is to say, “No, that’s a terrible idea.” Institutional memory is gone.

This moment reveals the hubris of a declining power. Trump has shredded America’s soft power. He believes only in the ability to dominate, but he may learn a solitary lesson.

Announcement:
I’ve finally set up a Patreon! For £5 a month, you can listen to the podcast ad-free. I’ll be migrating the back catalogue over time, but all new episodes will be available there immediately.

I’ll be talking more about this disastrous turn of events in the coming week. Take care, everyone. Stay safe. Bye-bye.