The Gulf Crisis – Two Theories of American Decline

There are roughly two camps. One argues that there is an overarching grand plan behind America’s actions in Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, and against Russia’s shadow fleet – a coherent strategy to choke off China’s industries and make Europe energy-dependent on the United States. The other, more plausible camp sees imperial decline and the chaos that decline inevitably brings.

I explore both.

John Mearsheimer argues that America has suffered a catastrophic defeat. The evidence is stark: Iran has published a ten-point plan that includes the removal of American bases from the Gulf, continued uranium enrichment, and reparations – and Trump accepted it as the basis for negotiations. America is running out of Tomahawk missiles, having burned through eight to ten years of stockpiles in weeks. Its capital ships have been withdrawn out of Iranian missile range. The world’s key strategic waterway is no longer under US control.

But journalist Richard Medhurst makes a compelling case that this is all about China – a brutal attempt to cut off Chinese industry from Persian Gulf oil and force Beijing to negotiate from weakness.

The problem is Trump. According to the New York Times, he went into this war on a whim – a “yeah, sounds good” after Netanyahu’s sales pitch – overruling his own generals. The White House has been systematically de‑professionalised. Institutional memory is gone. Decision‑making is chaos.

I draw a careful parallel wi